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Sign inConditions found in the ERP by deterministic checks, with the working behind each one. The checks decide what is happening; the explanation comes after.
1 Jan - 30 Jun 2026 against 1 Jan - 30 Jun 2025. Both are partial years, measured to the same day.
Booked value
$2,717,135+71.6%
vs 1 Jan - 30 Jun 2025
Orders
471+74.4%
vs 1 Jan - 30 Jun 2025
Average order value
$5,769-1.6%
vs 1 Jan - 30 Jun 2025
Net collections
$2,508,325+75.2%
vs 1 Jan - 30 Jun 2025 · net of refunds and corrections
Engagement rings
197+75.9%
vs 1 Jan - 30 Jun 2025
Cancellations
34+47.8%
vs 1 Jan - 30 Jun 2025 · by cancellation date
Open production
381
orders not completed · no prior-period snapshot exists
Showable stones
200
resolved availability · no prior-period snapshot exists
Both periods run 1 January to the snapshot's month-day. 1 Jan - 30 Jun 2026 is compared with 1 Jan - 30 Jun 2025, never with a full year.
Each condition was identified by SQL against the semantic views and labelled by a fixed rule. Nothing here was written by a model.
318 open orders are older than the 90th-percentile lifecycle of completed orders of the same type — 83.5% of all 381 open orders. The largest group is Engagement Ring: 140 open beyond 88 days.
By construction 10% of orders exceed their type's p90, so a non-zero count is expected. The figure worth reading is the share of open work sitting past it, not the raw count. · 3 further caveats with the evidence
13 of 20 regularly-selling shape and carat categories hold 4 months of showable cover or less at the trailing-year rate. The thinnest is Pear 1.00-1.99ct: 2 showable against 21 sold in the last twelve months, 1.1 months of cover.
Months of cover is arithmetic on last year's rate, not a forecast. It assumes demand continues at the same pace and no replenishment lands. · 4 further caveats with the evidence
51.9% of orders booked in 1 Jan - 1 May 2026 were paid in full within 60 days, against a 2023–2025 average of 58.2% over the same age-matched window.
Both windows are shortened by 60 days so they are age-matched. The current window therefore ends 2026-05-01, not 2026-06-30. · 4 further caveats with the evidence
Booked value +71.6% on +74.4% order volume, so the average order is -1.6% — $5,769 against $5,864 in 1 Jan - 30 Jun 2025.
For context, the 2023–2024 average was $5,924; 2026 is -2.6% against that. The headline compares single years. · 3 further caveats with the evidence
34 cancellations recorded in 1 Jan - 30 Jun 2026, 6.71% of the 507 orders booked in that window, against a 2023–2025 average of 6.91%.
Numerator and denominator are different populations. An order cancelled in 2026 may have been booked in 2024, so this is not the share of this year's orders that were cancelled. · 2 further caveats with the evidence
8.6% of the 2024 engagement-ring cohort bought a wedding band within 12 months, against a 2023–2023 average of 8.8%. 2024 is the most recent cohort whose 12-month window has fully closed.
Cohorts 2025, 2026 are excluded: their 12-month window has not closed, so their rate is right-censored and would read as a collapse rather than as an incomplete measurement. · 3 further caveats with the evidence
Patterns the order history supports. Elapsed time and stock levels, not predictions or scores.
161 clients bought an engagement ring 0–6 months ago and have no wedding-band order, having spent $1,444,031 with the studio so far. That window is the middle half of 61 past ring-to-band purchases; the median was 0 months.
This is elapsed time, not intent. It says these clients are as far past their ring as most past band buyers were — nothing about whether any of them will buy. · 3 further caveats with the evidence
4 vendors have supplied the 6 shapes running thin (Pear, Radiant, Oval, Cushion, Marquise, Round); 40 of the 43 vendor-shape routes shown supplied within the last six months.
Supply history is not a quote. Cost per carat and margin are averages over past stones that carried both a cost and a sell price. · 3 further caveats with the evidence
One reading of the findings above, written for communication rather than analysis.
Written from the findings above and nothing else. It prioritises and explains; it does not calculate.
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